Consumers got some relief at the grocery store, where prices fell 0.4% from March, and that brought down overall food prices by 0.1%. However, what’s been a yearslong unwinding of post-pandemic inflation also isn’t expected to last. This website provides information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P.
What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
Tuesday’s producer price index, or PPI, report for July helped confirm optimism that the elevated inflation numbers that began in 2021 and spiked again in early 2024 are in the rearview mirror. The result for consumers and businesses could be a longer wait for relief on borrowing costs, as the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate helps determine what banks, credit card companies and other lenders charge borrowers. And while tariff-related impacts were scant in Tuesday’s CPI data, not only were there some indications that price pressures may be building, but the report also showed signs of how massive economic uncertainty has weighed on consumers. The Federal Open Market Committee will set interest rates on June 18 after the CPI report. Fixed income markets expect that interest rates will be held steady at their current level of 4.25% to 4.5% according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Despite the attention on tariffs, housing costs make up a large portion of price trends in the CPI report.
Core Inflation Likely Shows Less Price Growth
Analysis by Today has shown that most large retailers have not increased pricing yet in reaction to tariffs, though several plan to in June or July. That may mean that any impact of tariffs may not be seen in May’s CPI report and even June’s report may not measure the full impact. The April 2025 jobs report underscored the labor market’s resilience in the face of trade policy uncertainties and recent market volatility. In its February survey of consumers, the New York Fed found that while respondents held to their one-year outlook for inflation at 3%, their expectations at the three- and five-year horizons accelerated to 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, both well ahead of the central bank’s 2% target. The bank’s economists now expect core CPI to run at a 3.3% rate this year, up from the previous 2.8% estimate. Focusing on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred Fed gauge, Wells Fargo sees inflation at 2.5% for the year, versus a prior estimate of 2.2%.
Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions. The details of the report may shed light on inflation’s impact on people’s everyday finances, as well as the outlook for the Fed.
“When is the next CPI report?” was a question no one was asking back in the days of 2% inflation readings. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you’re a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
What To Expect From May’s CPI Inflation Report
- Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) steadied at 2.4% in the year to April, compared to a 2.4% rise seen in March, according to the data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday.
- Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers in both chambers this week that the Fed is increasingly aware of the risks the fight against inflation poses to the labor market.
- For example, we have started to see some disinflation in shelter costs in 2023 so far.
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It’s the lowest annual rate since February 2021, and the April data was slightly better than expected. Economists expected that the CPI would rise 0.3% from March and hold steady at 2.4% for the 12 months ended in April, according to hire freelance developers online FactSet. US inflation slowed to its lowest rate in more than four years, an unexpected and welcome development at a time when President Donald Trump’s dramatically escalated tariffs are expected to cause prices to rise. Average nationwide prices for unleaded gas fell around 18 cents per gallon to $3.61 during May, according to Gasbuddy data, driving a large portion of the expected decrease, several economists said. However, these nowcasts are primarily informed by energy price trends and historical prices, so its possible that any potential impact from tariffs is missed. Still, many large firms whether retailers or car manufactures have not yet adjusted pricing in response to tariffs, so May’s data may not pick up a material tariff impact.
“In reality, the data for April is likely to be largely unaffected by President Trump’s announcements on Liberation Day,” said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, in an email. “This is because exemptions were granted for goods that had left exporting countries before 2 April, and because consumers and businesses rushed to front-run tariffs in February and March.” Economists are looking for early signs that Mr. Trump’s tariffs are trickling through to American households. Because tariffs are import taxes paid by U.S. companies, which largely pass on the added costs to shoppers, they are at some point expected to boost consumer prices.
And after a stunningly strong January jobs report, the market’s worries aren’t exactly misplaced. Like others on Wall Street, Baird expects the Fed in September to shift its focus from tight policy to tackle how to start forex in 2021 inflation to a somewhat easier stance to head off a potential weakening in the jobs picture. Because of the tentative trade agreement between China and the U.S., inflation may not rise as much as earlier anticipated, noted EY’s Daco, who said he’s lowered his year-end CPI forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2%. And on Monday, the Trump administration and China agreed to a temporary but significant easing of tariffs imposed over the last couple months, scaling back the import duties on Chinese-made goods from 145% to 30%. April’s reading reflects the lowest level since February 2021, government data shows.
- The bank also estimates that goods prices have held their ground despite an easing in supply chain pressures and pressure from higher interest rates.
- Forecasters are calling for core prices to be stickier because a few key prices could bounce back from their readings in May, which were unexpectedly low, namely car insurance and airline tickets, economists at Deutsche Bank said in a commentary.
- Generally, they prefer the PCE inflation metric, which is released later on August 31.
Trump says 50% tariff on European Union delayed until July
This nowcast estimate that July and August core CPI will rise at a 0.4% monthly rate. The Consumer Price Index inflation report for May will be released on June 11. Inflation nowcasting from the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates 0.12% headline monthly inflation for May and 0.23% when food and energy prices are removed. That bitfinex review would be similar to the 0.2% monthly CPI price increase reported in April for both headline and when adjusted for food and energy.. While the monthly gauge isn’t as comprehensive as the quarterly data that guides central bank policy, it nonetheless gives RBA officials a sense of the trajectory of consumer prices.
As a large component of CPI, lower housing costs may help drive inflation lower. If the next CPI report surprises to the upside like the January jobs report did, it will further dash hopes for a more dovish central bank in the latter part of 2023. Worse, rising interest rates raise the possibility of a Fed-induced recession. But try as the Fed might to tame inflation by increasing unemployment, the labor market has thus far refused to play along. After all, the S&P 500 rose more than 6% in the first month of 2023 thanks in part to expectations that the Fed would pivot away from its aggressive policy on interest rates sometime later this year. While consumers and business owners continue to express concern over high prices, the trend indeed has shifted.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more – straight to your e-mail. Inflation hit a four-decade high in 2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to embark on its most aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since the late Carter and early Reagan administrations.
More from CBS News
Governor Michele Bullock signaled after the decision that she’s more concerned about downside risks to economic growth as trade turmoil and geopolitical upheaval come to the fore. Used vehicle prices saw their second straight drop, down 0.5%, while new vehicles were flat. Apparel costs also were off 0.2% though medical care services increased 0.5%.
“Inflation’s stickiest components—housing and other services—continue to see strong price growth, propping up inflation even as certain goods prices cool,” wrote Kayla Bruun, senior economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult. Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday. Generally, they prefer the PCE inflation metric, which is released later on August 31.